The dispute between the Eastern Caribbean and the European Union over citizenship by investment programs has long since stopped being a purely diplomatic story. Behind every statement by the prime ministers are very concrete numbers: the share of budget revenue, the size of public debt, and what will happen to each of the five economies if Brussels gets its way.
For an investor choosing between Grenada, St Kitts and Nevis, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda and Saint Lucia, these figures matter more than the headlines. They show which country needs its program to keep the budget afloat and which uses it as one of several development tools, and whose negotiating position is more stable. Let's go through it step by step.
OECS: five voices against Brussels
The Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) was founded in 1981 and brings together 11 Eastern Caribbean territories. Seven of them, including all five countries that run citizenship by investment (CBI) programs, are full members: they share a currency (the Eastern Caribbean dollar), a single central bank (the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, ECCB, founded in 1983) and a common court of appeal.
In the current dispute with the EU, the OECS acts as the coordinating centre. Through its mechanisms the five governments form a common position, appoint a single negotiator and organise joint diplomatic missions instead of five separate appeals. On 20 September 2026, Antigua and Barbuda's foreign minister Chet Greene took the chair of the OECS Council of Foreign Ministers and named "fair treatment of citizenship by investment programs" among the priorities of his chairmanship.
That said, the organisation's real weight should be assessed soberly. The combined population of the five countries does not exceed 700,000, and the entire OECS region produces around USD 8 billion of GDP - orders of magnitude less than the EU's negotiating weight. The region's main resource is not economic pressure but coordination and appeals to the vulnerability of small island states. Historically, this tactic has worked reasonably well for such countries in other international formats, from climate negotiations to specialised UN committees.
New York, 24 September: dialogue without a deal
On 24 September 2026, the prime ministers of Saint Lucia, Philip J. Pierre, and Antigua and Barbuda, Gaston Browne, met European Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner on the sidelines of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly in New York. ECCB Governor Timothy Antoine (Grenada) and OECS Director General Didacus Jules (Saint Lucia) also attended.
The parties restated their known positions. The Caribbean leaders insisted on the importance of CBI as a source of development finance; the EU representative reportedly confirmed the framework set out in the letters of 25 June. The Government of Saint Lucia's official statement recorded it plainly: no agreement and no change to the 1 June 2028 deadline were announced after the meeting.
The next substantive milestone is the European Commission's report on the visa suspension mechanism, scheduled for December 2026. It will take into account the Caribbean countries' response to all of this year's contacts.
The money behind it all
For each of the five countries, what is at stake comes down to two indicators: how much CBI contributes to the budget today, and how heavy the debt burden is that these receipts help to carry.
| Country | Public debt, % of GDP (2025/26) | CBI share of budget revenue |
|---|---|---|
| St Kitts and Nevis | 54-60% | 60-70% |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 66-68% | about 15% |
| Grenada | 69-73% | 30-35% |
| Saint Lucia | 75-78% | 15-25% |
| Dominica | 98-100% | 40-60% |
Tellingly, the sharpness of individual leaders' rhetoric is explained not by the overall level of debt but by how dependent current revenue is on CBI. St Kitts and Nevis has the lowest debt in the group but the highest share of CBI in its budget, and it was the Premier of Nevis who was among the toughest voices in the negotiations. Dominica is unique in that both indicators are alarming at once: debt of about 100% of GDP and a high dependence on program revenue.
Grenada in close-up
Grenada's economy looks the most balanced of the five, and a look at its budget shows well how CBI is built into the public finances of a small island state.
The 2026 national budget, presented by Grenada's Minister of Finance Dennis Cornwall under the motto "Vision 75", amounts to 1.9 billion Eastern Caribbean dollars. Of this, 1.3 billion is recurrent revenue, 1.1 billion is allocated to recurrent spending, and capital expenditure is estimated at 370.4 million. The projected overall deficit of 309.8 million is covered mainly by drawing on government reserves rather than new debt, which the ministry highlights as a sign of stability.
Revenue is split into tax revenue (customs duties, VAT, income tax) and non-tax revenue, which includes citizenship by investment receipts. According to the IMF, it was the "normalised" CBI revenue and compensatory financing after Hurricane Beryl in 2024 that allowed the government to keep what the Fund called a "comfortable" fiscal position despite large reconstruction costs.
The program itself works as two different money flows:
- Contributions to the National Transformation Fund (NTF, created in 2013 together with the launch of the program) go into the budget directly and quickly. That is why they fund capital spending: infrastructure, healthcare, education.
- Real estate investment is technically larger (60-70% of total investment in recent years), but it passes through escrow accounts and is released in stages, so it is less useful for day-to-day budget planning than direct NTF contributions.
Since 2014, more than USD 985 million has flowed into Grenada's economy through both channels combined.
That is why Grenada's position in the talks with Brussels looks calmer than its neighbours'. The program matters to it, but it is not a question of budget survival as it is for St Kitts and Nevis or Dominica, and a relatively stable macroeconomy (falling debt, a budget surplus in 2024) gives the country more room for manoeuvre.
What this means for investors
Three practical conclusions follow from these numbers for anyone choosing a Caribbean program now.
First: the risk differs across the five countries, even though Brussels treats them as a single cluster. A country whose budget relies on CBI for two thirds of its revenue is under heavy pressure from both sides: it is harder for it to give ground to Europe and harder to survive the program being wound down. A country with a balanced economy can afford a more measured line.
Second: the calendar matters more than the headlines. The European Commission's December 2026 report and the 1 June 2028 deadline are two dates to plan application timing and document preparation around, rather than putting the decision off "until later".
Third: comparing programs by entry price alone is no longer enough. Price thresholds in the region are converging, and the stability of the jurisdiction itself comes to the fore. We covered how the single regional regulator responds to this in "ECCIRA Headquartered in Grenada", and how many passports each program has issued in "How Many Passports Have Been Sold".
What comes next
So far, neither side has backed away from its stated position. The Caribbean region insists on a gradual transition and compensatory financing, while the European Commission has not formally softened its demand that the programs be fully wound down by 2028.
The EU's December report will be the first moment to see how Brussels assesses in practice the steps the region has taken over the year: the creation of the regional regulator ECCIRA (Eastern Caribbean Citizenship by Investment Regulatory Authority, whose founding agreement was signed in September 2025), the harmonisation of investment thresholds and the reform of applicant due diligence. Until then, each of the five economies lives in waiting mode, balancing the current benefits of the program against the risk of its future wind-down.
MIRBEZVIZ follows the region's negotiations with the EU and the changes in each of the five programs. A personal expert will review your situation: which jurisdiction is more stable for your goals, what timelines are realistic given the EU calendar, and what is worth preparing in advance.
Book a meeting with an expert - we answer questions every day from 10:00 to 20:00.
This material is for information only and does not constitute legal or investment advice. Debt and CBI budget share figures are given as ranges based on public estimates for 2025-2026; please check current program terms with our specialists.
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